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Author: Matt Privratsky
(Photo: Michael Lake)
It’s hard to believe, but we’re already entering the fourth year of the Division 1 era for St Thomas. That monster freshman class from year one is now hoping to leave their mark on the women’s soccer program by helping the team jump from scrappy upstart in the competitive Summit League to perennial headache and postseason threat. What does the team need to do in order to take that step? Let’s jump in. Quick Refresh on 2023 If you weren’t following along for last fall’s Tommie Soccer season, the short way to describe it would be to say the team was still very much in transition. Multiple formations and tactical setups were used, dramatic lineup shifts continued to happen game to game, and it wasn’t always easy to predict how the team might perform on a given day because of that. 
In terms of some top line statistical markers, the Toms saw some progression from year one to year two, but not much between years two and three. The earliest days of the Tom’s DI era saw them running a pretty consistent high line press with incredibly quick shifts and a ton of subbing/rotation. That, at times, left them exposed to counter attacks as space was created by on-charging defenders looking to turn the other team over (the standard risk of pressing). That exposure seems to have dictated most of the tactical and formation changes since then – with the team focusing on reducing those chances for exposure, both in terms of who gets playing time and how the team lines up. What to Watch For in 2024 So this fall, I’ll be watching for how quickly and firmly St Thomas seems to settle into an identity. Do they try to let that front line (and front six overall) push forward and press the opposing team? Do they sit back a bit more and let the opponent come to them, confident in their ability to defend in their own half and get out on the counter from a deeper position? Do they go even more ambitious (for a new DI team trying to climb a competitive conference) and try to possess and control the run of play? It’s not incredibly clear from the exhibition season where the team may land because there was still a fair amount of formation and rotation tinkering (as you might somewhat expect). What I’ll be watching for is whether that seems to settle in at least by the end of the non-conference schedule. If we’re entering Summit League play with the previous couple paragraphs still being vaguely accurate, it could be a challenge for them to get results against more established conference opponents. Underneath the broader questions of identity, tactics, and formation is which players actually cement their spots in the rotation? This team is absolutely loaded with players who are, at minimum, solid Summit League players. That monster freshman class from year one of the DI era? Some of them go entire matches without even seeing the field because, as I’ve said from the very very beginning, St Thomas will always be a perfect almost-by-default landing spot for really really solid DI women’s college soccer players and each class has continued to bring a handful of quality contributors. So with such a loaded pool of possible rotation pieces, let’s just start with what we know:
By the end of non-conference, I’ll be looking for whether there is a somewhat consistent starting group, a somewhat consistent bench group, and how reactive vs proactive the choices in those areas seem to be.
Sunshine and Rainbows Predictions The preseason poll picked them 8th. Because of how competitive the Summit League is (top third RPI in all of DI, nationally), that finish is obviously entirely possible. If they have fairly real improvement over last year, they’re probably more like 6th or 7th. If they achieve sunshine and rainbows level of improvement (stuff *really* goes right), I could see them finishing something like 4th (behind Denver, SDSU, battling with Omaha and Oral Roberts in that 3,4,5 range etc).
And if *all seven* of those things happen, St Thomas probably wins the Summit League! That’s why this section is titled “Sunshine and Rainbows”! But the funny thing is, you can’t look at any of those bullets individually and say they aren’t at least possible. If none of those bullets come true, they probably do finish 8th. Which is fine. They’re still a pretty new DI team. The Summit League is hard. But the truth is, I think the talent on the roster is better than 8th. At minimum, the talent on this roster should mean that St Thomas (once eligible in 2025) is in the conference tournament (finishing top 6), being a problem for other teams, and maybe even regularly making the semis/final. And until they’re eligible (thank you, NCAA), we’ll keep watching Soccer in the Capital City, baby! (if you don't get the "Soccer in the Capital City" reference it means you haven't been to a St Thomas game in person and I therefore invite you to show up sometime and I'll personally give you a Modist Brewing drink of your choice!)
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1 Comment
Chad
8/28/2024 06:53:57 pm
Great list and summary! I think you’re missing Gabrielle Wamre, also at Army. Leave a Reply. |