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Author: Mark Privratsky  We are past the halfway point of NSIC play, and some familiar patterns are emerging. Minnesota State Mankato is the only team left undefeated and looks near impossible to score on with only 4 goals given up in 12 games. St Cloud is on a run of draws through tough NSIC territory but now ends with almost all non-playoff-positioned opponents, and some potential for their second straight at large NCAA birth. Bemidji State has been stingy with just a goal against them in the last five, besting Sioux Falls, Winona, SW MN State, Northern State and MSU Moorhead. We'll dive into the NSIC and NCAA playoff chances of the Northern Sun squads, games to watch in the coming weeks, and a shoutout to Ink Blot Sports for some insight into postseason calculations. MN State Mankato and St Cloud State safest for NCAA spots The mysteries of postseason birth selection are becoming less mysterious at Equal Time as we discovered a source called Inkblot Sports, run by Phillip Myers, who models exactly that. Inkblot covers all D2 sports and has been insightful in providing a model similar to the one used by the NCAA to select at large postseason births. As of now, only the undefeated MN State Mankato and the St Cloud State are predicted be in from the NSIC from an at large selection standpoint. Mankato faces a 6 game end stretch where only half are NSIC playoff prospects, so we wouldn't expect any change to their status. St Cloud State's record (6-2-4 overall, 3-1-4 in NSIC) isn't as impressive as the Mavericks, but because they've played virtually all of their toughest NSIC games, their "Performance Index" is still strong enough (6th in the Central Region -- 8 teams make the NCAAs from the Central) AND they face an easier back stretch of almost no NSIC playoff hopefuls. U Mary, Augie, BSU, CSP, Minot State, Northern State all in play for NCAA Using the Inkblot sourced postseason projector and the basic eyeball scan of the standings, a slate of Northern Sun teams still have the potential to be an at large squad. In basically a statistical tie, Mary, Augie, BSU, CSP, Minot State and Northern State are all just out of the 8th position based on Performance Index and RPI. Bemidji has some momentum with their win streak, but still has to face MN State Mankato, Augustana, Wayne, and CSP to close out. They'll need to pick up some big wins and maybe make a deep NSIC Tournament run to feel more confident (something they've done before). Mary has already faced a heavy list of opponents, losing only to MN State Mankato, beating Augie and drawing St Cloud to show their resilience this year. Many of these squads still face each other, and will have another chance in the NSIC Playoffs. But with so many NSIC teams so close, all of these bubble teams will likely need wins in the Conference tournament (or to literally win the conference tournament and its automatic bid) to feel confident about NCAA chances -- which could mean we only see 2 make it. We'll see! Lots of great soccer to go! Race for NSIC Playoffs wide open Yes we are only halfway through the regular season of Northern Sun play, but certain teams' fates are essentially going to be decided in the next few weeks. Let's dig into the teams that are on the edge of NSIC playoff contention. For the teams mentioned in the section above, nothing is guaranteed but they've got some cushion. For the squads sitting outside the top 8, there is a clear challenge to overcome and just 7-8 games to do it. Wayne State sits in 8th, with previously mentioned Minot State in 9th but reaping the reward of a tougher schedule when it comes to their outside NCAA at large hopes. Winona sits tied with Minot in a cluster of 8 schools separated by just 5 points. If you think you could pick how the standings will end of with that group of 8, buy a lotto ticket today. Sioux Falls has picked up a few wins to make a theoretical playoff run possible, but more likely for them, Crookston, SW MN State, Moorhead and UMD will be a focus on developing and seeing what type of run you can make to prepare for the next season. Games to Watch
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