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Author: Matt Privratsky
Photo: Sophia Romine | Credit: Jeremy Olson
Just one month ago, the Gophers were picked to finish 14th in the preseason Big Ten coaches poll. Now, sitting at 27 in the first national RPI rankings, Minnesota looks primed to outperform expectations in conference play — and that could be an understatement. They wrapped up non-conference play at 6-0-1 and won their Big Ten opener against Illinois on the road in Champaign. As they prepare to host Michigan on Thursday and travel to Wisconsin on Sunday, let’s take a look at how real this early success may be and how they’re stacking up against our preseason predictions. Top Line Stats On paper, the Gophers’ 2024 non-conference performance looks *remarkably* similar to 2023 — at least in terms of major statistical markers. 55.64 percent possession (compared to 57.67 last year), 72.1 percent passing (75.1), 2.2 xG (2.24), 2.29 goals per game (2.29), and less than a goal a game allowed. But there is one key point where this year’s Gopher Soccer team differs from last year: they refuse to be shut out. Last year, Minnesota was scoreless in three of its seven non conference games. This year, they haven’t been held scoreless *at all*. So even if the 16 goals they’ve scored in 2024 non-conference play happens to match 2023 exactly, this fall’s offense feels much more durable. Their shot on target percentage has also spiked almost 50 percent from 36.8 last year to 52.8 this year – 2nd in the Big Ten. And while that stat hasn’t historically shown to have much correlation to where a team may finish the last few years, for this Minnesota team it *does* feel significant.
Aside from the numbers, anyone who’s watched the Gophers this fall can tell there is much more combination, chemistry, and verve to the offense. As detailed above, the top line statistical markers are somehow basically the same. And the players on the field are largely the same (save for a few improved and new young players and one rock solid portal pickup in Evelyn Calhoon). But the feel of this team is completely different. Maybe it’s Calhoon being the ultimate complimentary player in the midfield. Maybe it’s Sophia Boman excelling in her new holding midfield role. Maybe adding a dynamic attacker like Caroline Birdsell has helped stretch opposing defenses just enough to open up more attacking space for the rest of the front six. Maybe Khyah Harper having her healthiest season (though she’s always played big minutes) really is the difference between a goal a season and 9 goals in 8 games. Odds are it’s all of those things combined plus a big dose of Head Coach Erin Chastain and her staff being in their fourth year leading the program. To me, it feels like this team is on the verge of a real level up. And the first real test for that theory comes this weekend against Michigan and Wisconsin.
Checking The Report Card In my season preview, I mentioned that it was possible that the Gophers could *well* outperform their 14th place poll position from the preseason. If that were to happen, I guessed the team would ace most or all of these tests:
So how do we grade those assignments so far? Forward line: 10 goals through 8 games. On pace for an A+. Corners as a consistent and dangerous weapon? Four of the Gopher’s 16 non-conference goals were off corners. I wouldn’t call corners consistent quite yet (the service continues to be a little too lofted etc) but you can’t say they’ve been effective. Last year, 28.3 percent of their corners led to a shot. This year, that number is 40.4%. Nowhere near the Cesaronian levels of 48% from 2022 but there is only one Gabbie Cesarone. So let’s call it a B or B+. Defense at 1.0 GAA or below? .86 in non-conference. Let’s call that an A (particularly because two of the goals were absolute miracle hits and a third was a PK). Scoring more than 2 goals a game? 2.29, though that always drops in Big Ten play but for now that’s for sure an A. Multiple first time rotation members excel in their roles? Hello Sarah Martin, Ashley Thurk, Evelyn Calhoon, Caroline Birdsell for crushing it so far with some extra credit for Taylor Heimerl, Aaryn Gabriel, Ally Childers, Avery Petty, and Kendall Stadden for all looking capable and, for the youngest players like Stadden, super improved from just a year ago — to say nothing of Kate Childers just, like, being a center back now? Just legend shit from Kate and an A overall. Win all “should win” games? They’re undefeated so you may think this answer is obvious but I think this is a *huge* one. When a game gets really dumb (Milwaukee ref…), when goals just aren’t really coming (NDSU), when you give up a wonder goal right after the opening whistle (Creighton), it can be super easy to settle for a draw or suffer a loss. This. Team. Won’t. An A so far. Other than the tie against a really good Brown team, the Gophers have *refused* to drop points. You can see it in their body language (or more accurately, almost total lack of any poor body language). You can see it in the multiple late game goals. This team has real guts *and* the ability to finish. The last time I covered a Gopher game with this level of moxy we were probably in the previous decade.
The Path to Top Six In that same scorecard season preview piece I mentioned a top six, first round Big Ten Tournament bye finish as a good, ambitious goal for the Gophers. Whether they want to finish top six or even just top ten (ten teams will make the new Big Ten conference tournament), the pathway is largely the same: win all cleanly most winnable games (team firmly ranked lower than you), pull off some toss up, within range game wins (team ranked vaguely similar to you), and steal some points from the big dogs (teams ranked well above you). In 2022 and 2023, when the tournament field was 8 teams out of 14, you needed to be essentially .500 to sneak in. In 2024, with the field expanded to 10 teams out of 18, let’s pretend the mark is about the same. Minnesota has 11 conference games. If they want to make the top 6 and get a bye in the first round, they probably need to win a minimum of 5 games and tie some others. If they want to make the top 10, they probably need a minimum of 3 or 4 wins and several ties on top of that. If we use the new RPI rankings as our (very rough) starting point, here’s how their conference opponents would fall into those incredibly imprecise buckets: Bucket A - Most winnable:
Bucket B - Within range:
Bucket C - Big dogs:
First, I’ll remind folks that all of this is junk science. But, other than the fact that every single Big Ten win is a big damn win, your shorthand for Gopher conference success this fall could be viewed as: win every game in Bucket A, pull off a win or two in Bucket B, steal some points (tie or win) in Bucket C. Put another way: Wisconsin, UCLA, USC, Ohio State, Penn State are all tough road games where any points would be absolutely legendary. At home vs Michigan, Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, and Iowa, they’ll need to rack up *wins* (not just ties). Thankfully, this weekend is about as good of a test case as you could ask for. Michigan on Thursday is a solid game but one Minnesota can win if they’re locked in. Wisconsin is a really tough test on the road but of their remaining road slate it’s probably clearly the most winnable. How they come out of this weekend will tell us a lot. Lose both and they may be primed for that 14th place finish. Win both and I think they have what it takes to hit that top 6 finish. Later this month I'll be traveling to LA for the first every USC/UCLA road trip for the Gophers and we are *incredibly* proud to be the only outlet investing this much time, energy, and resources to cover women's soccer in Minnesota! Thanks to all the monthly supporters who make significant trips like that possible! Appreciate our coverage? You can support our work for as little as $2/month!
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