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Author: Matt Privratsky
Sophia Romine and Caroline Birdsell. Credit: Jeremy Olson
Coming off the kooky one game weekend, where Minnesota tied Northwestern at home, the Gophers sit in 9th place in the Big Ten with 5 teams either two points either direction of them in the standings. To say the final battle for the 10 Big Ten Tournament spots will be close is absolutely an understatement. So you could say missing the opportunity for the win and a full three points against the Cats is a let down. But for Head Coach Erin Chastain, the flip side is just as true. “We’ll certainly take the point. Every point matters,” said Chastain. “And I think we’re still in a good spot moving forward having three home games left and two away. But you know, they’re all going to be hard games. We’ve got to get ready.”
So, of those remaining games, you’d say any points in the at Ohio State, at Penn State, at home vs Iowa games are essentially a bonus (though also maybe needed), the game against Maryland should be an on-paper multi goal win if they play well, and the Indiana game may be similar to Michigan and Northwestern – a game that looks like a clear win on standings paper but could be a really tough challenge on the day. At 2-2-2 the Gophers are precisely 500 (our other rough metric for conference tournament material). If they can get two wins and a tie out of these final five they’ll stay that way. They *can* play with and get points off of anybody (see USC). But will they bring the same kind of fire and focus as they had against the Trojans when they go on the road to take on the Buckeyes and Lions? We’ll see. Coming home with any points from this road trip would be a nice confidence boost heading into the three game homestand.
Straight to the NCAAs…? Last year, Michigan finished outside of the 8 team Big Ten Tournament field but got an at-large bid to the NCAAs. I doubt any team that finishes outside of the newly expanded 10 team B1G field would have the RPI juice for an at large, but the 11th best RPI in the conference is currently Indiana at 56 so it’s not *entirely* impossible to sneak in (see Chris’ projection above). We’ll see how the middle class of the conference does in these final games.
B1G Tournament Field USC, UCLA, Penn State, and Ohio State all play each other. While teams like Rutgers and Michigan State have a lighter remaining schedule on paper. Washington, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are in spots 8-11 and even Purdue and Nebraska aren’t super far behind – who of that big group claims the final three spots? Does anyone in that top 6 drop down because of that super hard finish or do they all trade points and largely stay the same? For this Thursday, my wildcard games to watch are whether Michigan can go into Washington and steal some points, if Iowa stays hot and buries the Badgers deeper into the danger zone, how the Indiana darby fairs between Purdue and the Hoosiers, and whether the Gophers can have a little more Thursday night magic and take some points against a very good Ohio State team.
The Pressures of Hosting Though there are still no official announcements, it’s been reported (and we can confirm) that the Big Ten Tournament is kicking off in Minnesota, baby! Ten teams almost certainly means you’ll have an opening round of 7 vs 10 and 8 vs 9 with the winners advancing to an 8 team second round (3 vs 6, 4 vs 5, W7/10 vs 1, W8/9 vs 2) to duke it out for a spot in the semis. I’d personally bet the Gophers make it. And based purely on where points stand right now, they’d almost certainly be in the 7-10 group on that opening day (though if they pull off a win at Ohio State tonight I’ll let myself start to dream *just* a bit).
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