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Author: Matt Privratsky
(Photo: Michael Lake)
It’s hard to believe, but we’re already entering the fourth year of the Division 1 era for St Thomas. That monster freshman class from year one is now hoping to leave their mark on the women’s soccer program by helping the team jump from scrappy upstart in the competitive Summit League to perennial headache and postseason threat. What does the team need to do in order to take that step? Let’s jump in. Quick Refresh on 2023 If you weren’t following along for last fall’s Tommie Soccer season, the short way to describe it would be to say the team was still very much in transition. Multiple formations and tactical setups were used, dramatic lineup shifts continued to happen game to game, and it wasn’t always easy to predict how the team might perform on a given day because of that. 
In terms of some top line statistical markers, the Toms saw some progression from year one to year two, but not much between years two and three. The earliest days of the Tom’s DI era saw them running a pretty consistent high line press with incredibly quick shifts and a ton of subbing/rotation. That, at times, left them exposed to counter attacks as space was created by on-charging defenders looking to turn the other team over (the standard risk of pressing). That exposure seems to have dictated most of the tactical and formation changes since then – with the team focusing on reducing those chances for exposure, both in terms of who gets playing time and how the team lines up. What to Watch For in 2024 So this fall, I’ll be watching for how quickly and firmly St Thomas seems to settle into an identity. Do they try to let that front line (and front six overall) push forward and press the opposing team? Do they sit back a bit more and let the opponent come to them, confident in their ability to defend in their own half and get out on the counter from a deeper position? Do they go even more ambitious (for a new DI team trying to climb a competitive conference) and try to possess and control the run of play? It’s not incredibly clear from the exhibition season where the team may land because there was still a fair amount of formation and rotation tinkering (as you might somewhat expect). What I’ll be watching for is whether that seems to settle in at least by the end of the non-conference schedule. If we’re entering Summit League play with the previous couple paragraphs still being vaguely accurate, it could be a challenge for them to get results against more established conference opponents. Underneath the broader questions of identity, tactics, and formation is which players actually cement their spots in the rotation? This team is absolutely loaded with players who are, at minimum, solid Summit League players. That monster freshman class from year one of the DI era? Some of them go entire matches without even seeing the field because, as I’ve said from the very very beginning, St Thomas will always be a perfect almost-by-default landing spot for really really solid DI women’s college soccer players and each class has continued to bring a handful of quality contributors. So with such a loaded pool of possible rotation pieces, let’s just start with what we know:
By the end of non-conference, I’ll be looking for whether there is a somewhat consistent starting group, a somewhat consistent bench group, and how reactive vs proactive the choices in those areas seem to be.
Sunshine and Rainbows Predictions The preseason poll picked them 8th. Because of how competitive the Summit League is (top third RPI in all of DI, nationally), that finish is obviously entirely possible. If they have fairly real improvement over last year, they’re probably more like 6th or 7th. If they achieve sunshine and rainbows level of improvement (stuff *really* goes right), I could see them finishing something like 4th (behind Denver, SDSU, battling with Omaha and Oral Roberts in that 3,4,5 range etc).
And if *all seven* of those things happen, St Thomas probably wins the Summit League! That’s why this section is titled “Sunshine and Rainbows”! But the funny thing is, you can’t look at any of those bullets individually and say they aren’t at least possible. If none of those bullets come true, they probably do finish 8th. Which is fine. They’re still a pretty new DI team. The Summit League is hard. But the truth is, I think the talent on the roster is better than 8th. At minimum, the talent on this roster should mean that St Thomas (once eligible in 2025) is in the conference tournament (finishing top 6), being a problem for other teams, and maybe even regularly making the semis/final. And until they’re eligible (thank you, NCAA), we’ll keep watching Soccer in the Capital City, baby! (if you don't get the "Soccer in the Capital City" reference it means you haven't been to a St Thomas game in person and I therefore invite you to show up sometime and I'll personally give you a Modist Brewing drink of your choice!)
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Matt Privratsky
Megan Nemec battling with Jasmine Gates. Credit: Michael Lake
The University of Minnesota and University of St Thomas have gone a combined 11 games without a win as they’ve transitioned into Big Ten and Summit League play respectively. At times, the teams have shown well defensively – nearly two thirds of those matches have seen the teams allow a goal or fewer – but on the offensive end, we just have not been seeing Minnesota’s DI programs put many goals on the board. With 6 games remaining for each team this fall, let’s dive into the offensive struggles and what could be done to turn them around down the final stretch of the 2023 season. What player steps up individually? The simplest way to gut check a team’s lack of scoring is to ask: are the scorers actually scoring? Are you getting goals from your forward line? Are your attacking midfielders converting the chances they’re getting and creating? Are your aerial threats scoring on the service they’re getting? Because at a certain point, you can create as many expected goals (xG) as you want with your buildup play. But when that xG is created, is it actually being converted into a goal? As star Gopher Sophia Romine puts it “someone’s just got to want to score.”
When a team like the Gophers has as much attacking talent as they have – particularly in the midfield, but also in the forward group – it’s not crazy to put some real scoring expectations on them. The team’s total offensive stats look ok overall, but 14 of the U’s 17 goals have come in three games. In 5 games, they haven’t scored at all and in the rest their scoring has been a significant challenge. For this group, that is – frankly – unacceptable. And it’s led the Gophers to continue to tweak the starting group, the way they sub, and who’s in the rotation as the season has gone on in an attempt to unlock individual players. For a team like St Thomas, the tweaks have been even more dramatic. The rotation overall has been as broad as you’d expect from the Toms. 20+ players might see time in any game. Even the centerbacks might be rotated (a rarity in virtually any level of competitive soccer). Part of the reason for so many Toms seeing time is that St Thomas really does have a mountain of players who are capable of – at minimum – contributing on a Summit League team. But so many players being rotated in and out also limits every individual player’s ability to settle their role both in that individual game and as their role shifts from game to game. That leads into the next layer of analysis. Are players in the right place within the formation and system? If you simply scan a box score after a game and see a traditional forward or attacker didn’t score, didn’t have many shots on goal, etc, your instinct might be to walk away thinking “why did *that player* not step up and impact the game?” And while a certain chunk of responsibility for their performance lands at each individual player’s feet, the role they are asked to play within their team’s system and formation also play a significant role. In their most honest moments, Gopher attackers might say “this system is somewhat new to me, I’m not getting enough minutes, or I’m not getting enough service.” St Thomas attackers might say “my role changes game to game and my shifts are so short I can’t settle into a rhythm.” And regardless of precisely how much truth there is in those kinds of statements for each individual player you pick out from each roster, there is truth to the fact that where someone plays in a given formation can (significantly) change the way they produce offensively – AND the impact can change wildly game to game based on how the *other* team plays. 
Sophia Boman and Ellie Tempero. Credit: Michael Lake
In short: finding the right spot for a single player can be hard, and finding the right spot for an entire team can be exponentially harder. It’s why we’ve seen so much tinkering. Ellie Tempero can play as a holding mid/6 but also as more of a box to box mid/8 or even as a technically gifted attacking mid/10. But she’s strong enough and savvy enough that Head Coach Sheila McGill has now deployed her as a centerback. Megan Nemec is a natural winger who has received national acclaim for her ability on outside but Head Coach Erin Chastain has, at times, shifted her to the sole central forward role in the starting lineup to see if something can be unlocked (and to get all three attacking mids – Sophia Boman, Paige Kalal, Sophia Romine – into the starting lineup. Something I don’t disagree with. They all can ball.) But where people play and how many people play can also be a double edged sword. Play too few and you might be leaving options on the table in terms of unlocking a rotation. Play too many and, despite feeling like you’re making more players happy, you might actually make *fewer* players happy because even fewer of them feel like they’re being given the sized role they feel they’ve earned. In other words, those lineup choices can be unbelievably sensitive. If you find the coach that nails the intersecting factors of communicating roles to players, keeping those roles consistent and/or known, playing enough players to unlock the best performance for their team, but not playing so many that the growth of their best players is limited: let me know. Because it seems like an almost unwinnable challenge. Is it the correct system and formation? And finally, even if individual players are doing their best AND they’re put in the best position *within* the given system and formation, things still might not really work. That’s when you might see teams make more foundational tweaks to their formation or system itself. At times you’ve probably seen me speak about formation choices in an overly simplistic binary choice such as “trying to increase the odds of scoring/wing” vs “trying to decrease the odds of conceding/losing”. Add a holding midfielder in place of a striker so your defense improves even if your chance creation theoretically gets reduced a bit in the final third. 
Aside from being overly simplistic, it’s also not always entirely accurate. Many times the formation is decided because of a number of factors: the mix of players you have that year, which players can shift to a different position most easily, adjusting to a weakness you’ve had in the past, focusing on unlocking certain players even if it means others might then have to adjust more significantly, etc. But even after weeks of testing in the spring and multiple days of training before the season starts to set up the lineup you think grapples with those numerous factors best, the games that count in the fall get weighted much more heavily in the calculus of formation and system. After ten games of real life experience, your theories no longer exist as hypotheticals – your games have told you how those theories holdup. Patterns that return game after game no matter how different the opponent is are not some whim to dismiss during a film or strategy session. The challenges that present themselves in those recurring patterns are now nearly objective truths – at least in this moment in time, with this group, in this schedule. Your formation alone is not the reason for those challenges you continue to face. But after tweaking everything you can about individual performance and where individuals are being played in your formation, changing your formation itself *might* be the thing that helps you finally address them.
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Mark Privratsky
We are at the point in the D1 season where everyone is now in their Conference season, all still able to hold out hope for postseason chances. The schedulers at the Summit League have made sure we have plenty of local drama in the first two weekends, with every Dakota school playing at least another one, St Thomas getting their crack at their new rivals, and and early matchup of perennial NCAA Tourney players Denver and South Dakota State. Around the country we've got Maddie Dahlien making goals happen for #1 North Carolina, NDSU players scoring goals in a so far winning season, and tons of players making their presence known in our player stat tracker. Jessie Hunt has officially quantified our first "Equal Time Bump" at Northeastern with her fellow Minnesotan Lauren Ahles riding side car for the Huskies. We've got games to watch, stats on 120 players (and counting) and rivalries to stoke! South Dakota State and South Dakota open Summit League with Jocelyn Tanner and Kayla Anderson in fine form for the ‘Jacks
We finally have Summit League action to watch this weekend and it kicks off with Rivalry games. Look no further than SDSU, so open at South Dakota this Sunday at 1pm, before facing NDSU, North Dakota and Denver to get the league started. We should have a good idea of South Dakota State’s postseason potential after the October 5th game in Denver. Jocelyn Tanner, one of the country’s stingiest keepers last year, is anchoring a Defense that will expect to lockout their Dakota rivals in advance of Denver. Among the many Minnesotans pacing the ‘Jacks, Senior Kayla Anderson has 2 goals and 2 assists on the year (including 1 goal and 2 assists in the rout of Green Bay), and is on track to play more minutes than ever up top along with Maya Hansen. As always, Summit League Network is your home for all Summit games.
UNC makes it through ranked gauntlet undefeated, beating #10 South Carolina off Maddie Dahlien assist
North Carolina is once again the #1 team in the nation, and you can’t really argue at this point. Earlier this year they tied a #10 Penn State and beat #24 USC, nothing to sneeze at. Then, they proceeded to beat #8 Arkansas, #10 South Carolina (away) and tie #12 Alabama away in Tuscaloosa. Minnesota Maddie Dahlien has continued her reintegration to the squad, snagging the opening assist in the close 2-1 win at South Carolina. Dahlien was All ACC Freshman Team last year and has built her minutes all season, starting the last 3 games. UNC goes to #22 Virgina this Thursday at 6pm Central on ACC Network.
NDSU opens Summit League play against Kansas City with MN made winning record
NDSU opens the Summit League season at home, hosting the prairie schools Kansas City and Omaha this Thursday and Sunday. The next weekend it gets spicy with a trip to Brookings to face bitter rival SDSU, before heading to new rivals St Thomas on Sunday Oct 1. The Bison boast 12 Minnesotans as the 3rd most MN squad in D1, so it can be difficult to dole out shine. Right now we’ll focus on Paige Goaley (2 goals in last two games), Jess Hanley (1 goal and 2 assist in last two), and Olivia Watson (2 goals, 1 assist in the last 3). NDSU face Kansas City this Thursday, Sept 21 at 6:30pm on Summit League Network.
Equal Time Bump and Northeastern’s pair of Loons pacing the Huskies to another solid start
Northeastern was .500 in 2021, In 2022 with the help of newcomer Jessie Hunt dropping nation pacing assists all year (as well as another first year to be named), they were 10-6-4. The Huskies have every hope of making another step up this year, part of that being Hunt’s fellow Minnesotan Lauren Ahles (Lino Lakes), who played plenty last year but seems to have found a step up in her Sophmore season. In the last few weeks, Lauren Ahles scored her first ever college goal at UNC Wilmington, and found the net again in a 3-3 draw at Campbell. Nothing has changed this year for Jessie Hunt as she is tied for 4th in the country with 7 assists. Hunt is perhaps our first quantified “Equal Time Bump”, as she had 3 assists in 4 games before our August 29 interview, and has since had 2 goals and four assists in her next five. By the way, Jessie is right behind an INSANE Lexi Missimo’s 15 assists and 12 goals in 9 games at Texas. She *may be going for the silver medal in assists this year. Games to Watch
ICYMI: Interview with Gophers Elizabeth Overberg and Jordy RothwellPlayer Stat Tracker
Alabama State
Kassandra Schoen - 3 goals, 336 minutes in 8 games Arkansas-Pine Bluff Brisha Musungu - 3 goals, 1 assist, 790 minutes in 10 games Army Hannah Pohlidal - 6 minutes in 1 game Auburn Maddie Lo - 0.00 GAA, 33 minutes played in 2 games Austin Peay Hannah Zahn - 472 minutes in 9 games Boston College Andi Barth - 1 assist, 539 minutes in 9 games Brown Clare Gagne - .36 GAA, 8 saves, 495 minutes in 6 games Denver Shay Payne - DNP Megan Prazich - 798 minutes in 9 minutes Drake Brooke Davies - 286 minutes in 9 games Delaney Goertzen - 435 minutes in 9 games Angela Gutierrez - 2 goals, 2 assists in 420 minutes Florida Atlantic Mia Sennes - DNP Illinois State Katharine Ashley - 538 minutes in 7 games Erica Moline - 87 minutes in 3 games Kansas State Rilyn Rintoul - 226 minutes in 5 games Kent State Luca Ralph - 214 minutes in 7 games Lipscomb Lydia Hindt - 1 assist, 410 minutes in 10 games Long Beach State Katarina Decaroli - 48 minutes, 5.66 GAA in 2 games Loyola Chicago Amanda Cassidy - 2 goals, 794 minutes in 10 games Jordan Pascarella - 267 minutes in 4 games Marquette Chloe Olson - 1.54 GAA, 7 saves, 233 minutes in 3 games Abby Ruhland - DNP Minnesota Sophia Barjesth - 184 minutes in 6 games Alma Beaton - 17 minutes in 2 games Sophia Boman - 5 goals, 2 assists, 664 minutes in 8 games Grace Fogarty - DNP Abi Frandsen - 1 goal, 692 minutes in 8 games Khyah Harper - 2 assists, 279 minutes in 7 games Sadie Harper - 180 minutes in 6 games Taylor Heimerl - 1 assist, 303 minutes in 8 games Paige Kalal - 1 goal, 1 assist, 417 minutes in 8 games Sarah Martin - DNO Megan Plaschko - .39 GAA, 20 saves, 696 minutes in 8 games Maddy Raymond - 15 minutes in 2 games Maddie Shannon - DNP Kendall Stadden - 16 minutes in 2 games Jelena Zbiljic - 417 minutes in 8 games Navy Emma Frommelt - 37 minutes in 6 games Nebraska Lauren Buzzell - DNP North Carolina Maddie Dahlien - 1 assist, 244 minutes in 7 games North Carolina-Ashville Ava Bjorkman-Tracy - 1 assist, 560 minutes in 8 games North Dakota Katie Alto - DNP Sydney Bakritzes - DNP Jessica Machovec - 21 minutes in 3 games Avery Toms - 112 minutes in 7 games NDSU Paige Goaley - 2 goals, 1 assist, 505 minutes in 9 minutes Madalyn Grate - 176 minutes in 8 games Jess Hanley - 1 goal, 2 assists, 571 minutes in 7 games Kaitlyn Hanson - 240 minutes in 5 games Kelsey Kallio - 3 assists, 436 minutes in 9 games Olivia Lovick - 485 minutes in 9 games Maddie Majewski -47 minutes in 3 games Izzy Smith - DNP Ave Stanchina - 1 goal, 1 assist, 272 minutes in 9 games Mckenna Strand - 513 minutes in 9 games Loretta Wacek - 1 goal, 1 assist, 422 minutes in 9 games Olivia Watson - 3 goals, 1 assist, 662 minutes in 9 games Northeastern Lauren Ahles - 2 goals, 344 minutes in 9 games Jessie Hunt - 2 goals, 7 assists in 709 minutes Northern Illinois University Jordyn Saddler - DNP Northern Iowa Morgan Barnette - 2 goals, 311 minutes in 9 games Olivia Bohl - 1 assist, 662 minutes in 9 games Lauren Heinsch - 4 goals, 2 assists in 9 games Olivia Knoepfle - 3 goals, 3 assists, 482 minutes in 9 games Jenna Nyblom - 20 minutes in 2 games Northwestern Ramira Ambrose - 33 minutes in 4 games Sydney Panek - 4 minutes in 1 game Notre Dame Paige Peltier - 68 minutes in 5 games Omaha Lindsey Birch - 252 minutes in 7 minutes Oregon State Anna Wagner - 252 minutes in 7 games Penn State Kaitlyn MacBean - 2 goals, 438 minutes in 8 games Seton Hall Ella Conger - 49 minutes in 4 games South Dakota State Kayla Anderson - 2 goals, 2 assists in 416 minutes Katelyn Beulke - 1 goal, 1 assist, 232 minutes in 9 games Lauren Eckerle - 1 assist, 708 minutes in 9 games Ava Grate - DNP Maya Hansen - 5 goals, 1 assist, 376 minutes in 7 games Katherine Jones - 2 goals, 1 assist, 558 minutes in 9 games Emma Knack - 0.67 GAA, 2 Saves, 135 minutes in 3 games Jocelyn Tanner - .80 GAA, 21 Saves, 675 minutes in 9 games South Dakota Brooklyn Bordson - 535 minutes in 9 games Izzy Quintavalle - 1 goal, 3 assists, 533 minutes in 9 games SIU-Edwardsville Mary Fetter - 1 goal, 224 minutes in 7 games St Thomas Abby Brantner - 2 goals, 549 minutes in 7 games Ella Bryant - 69 minutes in 4 games Sofia Caballero - 1 assist, 520 minutes in 7 games Annika Eckroth - 44 minutes in 1 game Emma Fournier - 1 goal, 219 minutes in 7 games CJ Fredkove - 1 goal, 67 minutes in 4 games Jasmine Gates - 3 assists, 364 minutes in 7 games Olivia Graupmann - 0.00 GAA, 0 Saves, 18 minutes in 1 game Abby Hoiska - 1 goal, 1 assist, 130 minutes in 6 games Lexi Huber - 1 goal, 2 assists, 282 minutes in 7 games Cedar Jorgenson - 179 minutes in 6 games Molly Knoblauch - 428 minutes in 7 games Anna Koepke - 136 minutes in 4 games Sydney Kubes - 409 minutes in 6 games McKenna Lehman - 42 minutes in 4 games Bella Meier - 141 minutes in 5 games Lissa Mizutani - 1 goal, 416 minutes in 7 games Mariah Nguyen - 5 goals, 429 minutes in 7 games Kendall Quall - 549 in 7 games Camryn Rintoul - 1 goal, 545 minutes in 7 games Olivia Rowe - 1.14 GAA, 34 saves, 612 minutes in 7 games Tatum Trettel - 10 minutes in 1 game Stetson University Alexis Smith - 327 minutes in 8 games University of Texas - Rio Grande Valley Ana Recarte-Pacheco - 2 goals, 480 minutes in 6 games Utah Tech Madison Monson - 49 minutes in 3 games Wake Forest Payton Cahill - DNP Western Illinois Emmy Ellington - 629 minutes in 7 games Rita Moran - 1 assist, 490 minutes in 7 games Wisconsin Dara Adringa - 77 minutes in 8 games Maddie Ishaug - 1 assist, 798 minutes in 9 games Kenzie Jacobson - 91 minutes in 7 games Maddie Poor - 17 minutes in 2 games Wisconsin-Milwaukee Clara Broecker - 3 goals, 1 assist, 787 minutes in 9 games Alyssa Marceau - DNP |
