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Author: Matt Privratsky
Sophia Romine and Caroline Birdsell. Credit: Jeremy Olson
Coming off the kooky one game weekend, where Minnesota tied Northwestern at home, the Gophers sit in 9th place in the Big Ten with 5 teams either two points either direction of them in the standings. To say the final battle for the 10 Big Ten Tournament spots will be close is absolutely an understatement. So you could say missing the opportunity for the win and a full three points against the Cats is a let down. But for Head Coach Erin Chastain, the flip side is just as true. “We’ll certainly take the point. Every point matters,” said Chastain. “And I think we’re still in a good spot moving forward having three home games left and two away. But you know, they’re all going to be hard games. We’ve got to get ready.”
So, of those remaining games, you’d say any points in the at Ohio State, at Penn State, at home vs Iowa games are essentially a bonus (though also maybe needed), the game against Maryland should be an on-paper multi goal win if they play well, and the Indiana game may be similar to Michigan and Northwestern – a game that looks like a clear win on standings paper but could be a really tough challenge on the day. At 2-2-2 the Gophers are precisely 500 (our other rough metric for conference tournament material). If they can get two wins and a tie out of these final five they’ll stay that way. They *can* play with and get points off of anybody (see USC). But will they bring the same kind of fire and focus as they had against the Trojans when they go on the road to take on the Buckeyes and Lions? We’ll see. Coming home with any points from this road trip would be a nice confidence boost heading into the three game homestand.
Straight to the NCAAs…? Last year, Michigan finished outside of the 8 team Big Ten Tournament field but got an at-large bid to the NCAAs. I doubt any team that finishes outside of the newly expanded 10 team B1G field would have the RPI juice for an at large, but the 11th best RPI in the conference is currently Indiana at 56 so it’s not *entirely* impossible to sneak in (see Chris’ projection above). We’ll see how the middle class of the conference does in these final games.
B1G Tournament Field USC, UCLA, Penn State, and Ohio State all play each other. While teams like Rutgers and Michigan State have a lighter remaining schedule on paper. Washington, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are in spots 8-11 and even Purdue and Nebraska aren’t super far behind – who of that big group claims the final three spots? Does anyone in that top 6 drop down because of that super hard finish or do they all trade points and largely stay the same? For this Thursday, my wildcard games to watch are whether Michigan can go into Washington and steal some points, if Iowa stays hot and buries the Badgers deeper into the danger zone, how the Indiana darby fairs between Purdue and the Hoosiers, and whether the Gophers can have a little more Thursday night magic and take some points against a very good Ohio State team.
The Pressures of Hosting Though there are still no official announcements, it’s been reported (and we can confirm) that the Big Ten Tournament is kicking off in Minnesota, baby! Ten teams almost certainly means you’ll have an opening round of 7 vs 10 and 8 vs 9 with the winners advancing to an 8 team second round (3 vs 6, 4 vs 5, W7/10 vs 1, W8/9 vs 2) to duke it out for a spot in the semis. I’d personally bet the Gophers make it. And based purely on where points stand right now, they’d almost certainly be in the 7-10 group on that opening day (though if they pull off a win at Ohio State tonight I’ll let myself start to dream *just* a bit).
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Author: Matt Privratsky
Photo: Sophia Romine | Credit: Jeremy Olson
Just one month ago, the Gophers were picked to finish 14th in the preseason Big Ten coaches poll. Now, sitting at 27 in the first national RPI rankings, Minnesota looks primed to outperform expectations in conference play — and that could be an understatement. They wrapped up non-conference play at 6-0-1 and won their Big Ten opener against Illinois on the road in Champaign. As they prepare to host Michigan on Thursday and travel to Wisconsin on Sunday, let’s take a look at how real this early success may be and how they’re stacking up against our preseason predictions. Top Line Stats On paper, the Gophers’ 2024 non-conference performance looks *remarkably* similar to 2023 — at least in terms of major statistical markers. 55.64 percent possession (compared to 57.67 last year), 72.1 percent passing (75.1), 2.2 xG (2.24), 2.29 goals per game (2.29), and less than a goal a game allowed. But there is one key point where this year’s Gopher Soccer team differs from last year: they refuse to be shut out. Last year, Minnesota was scoreless in three of its seven non conference games. This year, they haven’t been held scoreless *at all*. So even if the 16 goals they’ve scored in 2024 non-conference play happens to match 2023 exactly, this fall’s offense feels much more durable. Their shot on target percentage has also spiked almost 50 percent from 36.8 last year to 52.8 this year – 2nd in the Big Ten. And while that stat hasn’t historically shown to have much correlation to where a team may finish the last few years, for this Minnesota team it *does* feel significant.
Aside from the numbers, anyone who’s watched the Gophers this fall can tell there is much more combination, chemistry, and verve to the offense. As detailed above, the top line statistical markers are somehow basically the same. And the players on the field are largely the same (save for a few improved and new young players and one rock solid portal pickup in Evelyn Calhoon). But the feel of this team is completely different. Maybe it’s Calhoon being the ultimate complimentary player in the midfield. Maybe it’s Sophia Boman excelling in her new holding midfield role. Maybe adding a dynamic attacker like Caroline Birdsell has helped stretch opposing defenses just enough to open up more attacking space for the rest of the front six. Maybe Khyah Harper having her healthiest season (though she’s always played big minutes) really is the difference between a goal a season and 9 goals in 8 games. Odds are it’s all of those things combined plus a big dose of Head Coach Erin Chastain and her staff being in their fourth year leading the program. To me, it feels like this team is on the verge of a real level up. And the first real test for that theory comes this weekend against Michigan and Wisconsin.
Checking The Report Card In my season preview, I mentioned that it was possible that the Gophers could *well* outperform their 14th place poll position from the preseason. If that were to happen, I guessed the team would ace most or all of these tests:
So how do we grade those assignments so far? Forward line: 10 goals through 8 games. On pace for an A+. Corners as a consistent and dangerous weapon? Four of the Gopher’s 16 non-conference goals were off corners. I wouldn’t call corners consistent quite yet (the service continues to be a little too lofted etc) but you can’t say they’ve been effective. Last year, 28.3 percent of their corners led to a shot. This year, that number is 40.4%. Nowhere near the Cesaronian levels of 48% from 2022 but there is only one Gabbie Cesarone. So let’s call it a B or B+. Defense at 1.0 GAA or below? .86 in non-conference. Let’s call that an A (particularly because two of the goals were absolute miracle hits and a third was a PK). Scoring more than 2 goals a game? 2.29, though that always drops in Big Ten play but for now that’s for sure an A. Multiple first time rotation members excel in their roles? Hello Sarah Martin, Ashley Thurk, Evelyn Calhoon, Caroline Birdsell for crushing it so far with some extra credit for Taylor Heimerl, Aaryn Gabriel, Ally Childers, Avery Petty, and Kendall Stadden for all looking capable and, for the youngest players like Stadden, super improved from just a year ago — to say nothing of Kate Childers just, like, being a center back now? Just legend shit from Kate and an A overall. Win all “should win” games? They’re undefeated so you may think this answer is obvious but I think this is a *huge* one. When a game gets really dumb (Milwaukee ref…), when goals just aren’t really coming (NDSU), when you give up a wonder goal right after the opening whistle (Creighton), it can be super easy to settle for a draw or suffer a loss. This. Team. Won’t. An A so far. Other than the tie against a really good Brown team, the Gophers have *refused* to drop points. You can see it in their body language (or more accurately, almost total lack of any poor body language). You can see it in the multiple late game goals. This team has real guts *and* the ability to finish. The last time I covered a Gopher game with this level of moxy we were probably in the previous decade.
The Path to Top Six In that same scorecard season preview piece I mentioned a top six, first round Big Ten Tournament bye finish as a good, ambitious goal for the Gophers. Whether they want to finish top six or even just top ten (ten teams will make the new Big Ten conference tournament), the pathway is largely the same: win all cleanly most winnable games (team firmly ranked lower than you), pull off some toss up, within range game wins (team ranked vaguely similar to you), and steal some points from the big dogs (teams ranked well above you). In 2022 and 2023, when the tournament field was 8 teams out of 14, you needed to be essentially .500 to sneak in. In 2024, with the field expanded to 10 teams out of 18, let’s pretend the mark is about the same. Minnesota has 11 conference games. If they want to make the top 6 and get a bye in the first round, they probably need to win a minimum of 5 games and tie some others. If they want to make the top 10, they probably need a minimum of 3 or 4 wins and several ties on top of that. If we use the new RPI rankings as our (very rough) starting point, here’s how their conference opponents would fall into those incredibly imprecise buckets: Bucket A - Most winnable:
Bucket B - Within range:
Bucket C - Big dogs:
First, I’ll remind folks that all of this is junk science. But, other than the fact that every single Big Ten win is a big damn win, your shorthand for Gopher conference success this fall could be viewed as: win every game in Bucket A, pull off a win or two in Bucket B, steal some points (tie or win) in Bucket C. Put another way: Wisconsin, UCLA, USC, Ohio State, Penn State are all tough road games where any points would be absolutely legendary. At home vs Michigan, Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, and Iowa, they’ll need to rack up *wins* (not just ties). Thankfully, this weekend is about as good of a test case as you could ask for. Michigan on Thursday is a solid game but one Minnesota can win if they’re locked in. Wisconsin is a really tough test on the road but of their remaining road slate it’s probably clearly the most winnable. How they come out of this weekend will tell us a lot. Lose both and they may be primed for that 14th place finish. Win both and I think they have what it takes to hit that top 6 finish. Later this month I'll be traveling to LA for the first every USC/UCLA road trip for the Gophers and we are *incredibly* proud to be the only outlet investing this much time, energy, and resources to cover women's soccer in Minnesota! Thanks to all the monthly supporters who make significant trips like that possible! Appreciate our coverage? You can support our work for as little as $2/month!
Authors: Mark Privratsky and Matt Privratsky
Photo: Katelyn Beulke of SDSU. Photographer: Travis Gallipo
The 2024 college soccer season has officially kicked off! That once again means attempting to round up every single Minnesotan playing DI women’s soccer across the country. So far, you’ve helped us find 118 players suiting up for 46 different programs. This year, we've even put that entire master list of DI MNs into a publicly viewable, sortable google sheet that you can access and sort! Now, let’s take a look at where those players are concentrated, some early top performers, and some games to watch over the next couple weekends.
"Most Minnesotan" Programs Though Minnesotans are rostered on 46 different programs, the bulk of local players suit up for just a handful of programs. Not surprisingly, nearly all of them are either in Minnesota or just beyond the border. Only Army cracks the list without having geographic proximity in their corner. Here’s the full top ten:
Catch our Weekly Shows! For the fall season, we’ve switched to a weekly format where every Tuesday at 7PM we’ll do a full round up of all the Equal Time Soccer beats. It will be a different mix of guests, analysis, and updates every week based on the top stories of the day. Check out this week’s show, featuring star Gopher Soccer forward Caroline Birdsell and a full rundown of some top performing DI MNs, below. Early Top Performers Pohlidal Sisters Pace Army: Senior Hannah Polidal has been joined by her younger sister freshman Grace Polidal (as well as sophomore keeper Jordan Hecht) at the United States Military Academy and they’re off to a strong 3-1 start. After a respectable 0-1 loss to Wake Forest to start season, they’ve had a 3-0 win over Manhatten, a 3-2 win over Umass, and a 2-0 win over Central Conn St – with the Pohlidals seeing time in every match so far. Izzy Making an Impact for the Irish: Izzy Engle has come onto the college soccer scene in an absolutely atomic way, scoring a hat trick in Notre Dame’s win over Samford (the first Freshman since 2008 to have a hat trick at Notre Dame) and putting up 2 goals in a win vs TCU after that. To play as a freshman is impressive, to do so for a team like Notre Dame is incredibly impressive, to play *this way* on top of it is just flatout unreal. Twin Cities Crosstown Showdown: The University of Minnesota and the University of St Thomas have now faced in back to back seasons and the Gophers once again (as you’d expect on paper) came out on top — this time with a 4-1 win at the South Field of St Thomas. The Gophers now sit at 2-0 and St Thomas is 0-2-1 with both squads hitting the road this weekend (MN at MKE & Marquette, UST at Marist & Sienna: more details below) From Brown to Teal: Clare Gagne an Orono native and long time keeper for highly touted Brown in the Ivy League has transferred to UNC to play alongside fellow Minnesotan Maddie Dahlien. Dahlien notched an assist in UNC’s opening win against Denver (though is now away with the USYNT on U20 World Cup duty) and Gagne has claimed the starting spot in goal. Both will be leaned on heavily as UNC fights to maintain their place toward the top of the newly expanded ACC following the departure of ten starters from last season and the recent retirement of longtime UNC Head Coach Anson Dorrance. Berit’s Invisible Brace for Iowa: Berit Parton started her college soccer career off with a bang, scoring two goals in 30 seconds as Iowa took a commanding lead against Oregon State. In the second half, however, the game had to be called for weather – but not with enough game played for the result to be final. According to Iowa staff, Oregon State ultimately declined to schedule a makeup date/time so the game (and Parton’s goals) won’t count in the official record books – don’t worry, we made sure there’s a record (watch them for yourself below). Parton absolutely cooked in the UPSL Midwest West this summer and looks to continue the moment this fall alongside fellow Minnesotan and former South Dakota State legend Maya Hansen, who has now officially returned from injury and seen time in multiple games for the Hawkeyes this fall.
Upcoming Games to Watch! North Dakota at UNC, Thur Aug 29 3PM, ACC Network Plus USD at Drake, Thur Aug 29, 3PM Midco Sports MN at Milwaukee, Thur Aug 29 7PM, ESPN+ Penn St vs WV, Thur Aug 29, 6:30PM, BTN+ St Thomas at Marist, Thur Aug 29 St Thomas at Siena, Sun Sept 1 MN at Marquette, Sun Sept 1 1PM, Flo Sports Penn St at St Louis, Sun Sept 1, 1PM, ESPN+ SDSU at UW Green Bay, Sun Sept 1 12PM, ESPN+ Army at Providence, Sun Sept 1 12PM, ESPN+ Minnesota v Army, Thur Sept 5 5PM, ESPN+ Boston College at Cornell, Thur Sept 5 5PM, ESPN+ UNC v Duke, Thur Sept 5 6PM, ACC Network Penn St v Princeton, Thur Sept 5 6PM, ESPN+ Wisconsin v Milwaukee, Thur Sept 5 7PM, ESPN+ St Thomas at UNI, Fri Sept 6 4PM, ESPN+ Minnesota v Brown, Sun Sept 8 1PM, BTN+ Marquette v #9 Notre Dame, Sun Sept 8 12:30PM, ACC Network #18 Wake Forest v UNC Asheville, Sun Sept 8 1PM, ACC Network Penn St v Georgetown, Sun Sept 8 Noon, Flo Sports SDSU v Drake, Sun Sept 8 1PM, Midco Sports South Dakota v Portland State, Sun Sept 8 1PM, Midco Sports STREAMING Every other week we will update you with games that feature Minnesotans that you can potentially watch in person (Twin Cities focus) or via stream. There are a lot (too many?) of individual streamers in sports these days, so we will focus on the most accessible games with the most bang for your buck. Check your team’s schedules to see how many games will be on each platform to see if it’s worth it for you. If you’re a Big Ten fan, BTN+ is a bit spendy but could be worth it for the season at $12.99/month or $89.99/year. If you are a bit more in the weeds you may look into Flo Sports, but the most games by far will be found on ESPN+. Plenty of non conference games and a handful of our MN heavy conferences feature on ESPN+, along with lots of other soccer content, so you could find value there. While 100+ Minnesotans are playing (almost) coast to coast this fall, there is no Conference that comes close to the Minnesotan-ness of the Summit League, where 46 of the 109 (and counting) D1 players make their home. The Summit League Network is home to all of the soccer games in the Conference, along with all of the Conference’s sports. The Summit League Network broadcasts via the Midco Sports App, or at MidcoSportsPlus.com. The membership is $9.99/month or a slightly cheaper rate for a year. Support our Work! Appreciate our coverage of DI Minnesotans and all of Minnesota women's soccer? You can support us for a little as $2/month! |