Author: Mark Privratsky There are just a few games left for the Northern Sun soccer squads, and we are seeing their playoff futures defined quickly. As the postseason draws near, we are here to breakdown where teams stand in terms of both making the NSIC playoffs, as well as NCAA chances. For MN State Mankato and St Cloud State, it's about maintaining their position and holding onto at large hopes. For Augustana, Concordia St Paul, Minot State, Bemidji State, and U Mary, they can still envision NCAA chances through a run for at large position if things go their way. Another rung of squads (Northern State, Wayne State & spoiler Winona State) is fighting to simply ensure an NSIC Tournament seed (top 8) so they can keep their dreams alive. Dig into the playoff possibilities for Northern Sun teams, find the games to watch in the last few rounds, and check out the most recent NCAA projections from Inkblot Sports in this edition of the NSIC on Equal Time! MN State Mankato and St Cloud State projected to NCAAs, tops in NSICYou wouldn't expect a team who wins 9-0 (MSU Moorhead) and 4-0 (Sioux Falls) over two weekends to feel vulnerable, but MN State Mankato showed again that any game in the NSIC can be a tough one. Two days after putting up 9 on the dragons, Mankato had to settle for a 0-0 draw to Northern State at home to theoretically keep the regular season NSIC race in the air. Regardless, MN State Mankato is still undefeated in conference play, and holds a 5 point lead over St Cloud State. Consider the Mavericks a lock for the NCAAs even if they still want to win some NSIC silverware along the way. They'll play at Bemidji State this Friday at 5pm before playing in Crookston on Sunday at 1pm. St Cloud State meanwhile has taken advantage of their softer schedule in the 2nd half. After drawing Mary and Minot, they've beaten Moorhead, Northern, SW MN State, and Sioux Falls to also sit in at at large position for the NCAAs. In order to stay there they'll need to win the games you'd predict them to, versus Winona and Crookston the next two weeks, but obviously the Huskies want the playoff NSIC hardware to match last year's regular season trophy as well. Playing for their NCAA fate: |
Friday, November 1 U Mary vs Wayne State, 1pm Bemidji State vs MN State Mankato, 5pm Northern State vs Augustana, 5:30pm St Cloud State vs Winona State, 6pm | Sunday, November 3 Minot State vs Wayne State, 1pm Bemidji State vs Concordia-St Paul, 1pm Thursday, November 7 Wayne State vs Winona State, 3pm U Mary vs Northern State, 5pm |
Fall is officially here! We can wear layers, gorgeous leaves are changing color and most importantly, college soccer playoffs are upon us. For D1 Minnesotans, we have a year with a lot of postseason potential -- with multiple teams still in the chase for postseason opportunities. The Gophers are back in the Big Ten Tournament after missing out last year, with a real chance to be in the NCAAs (maybe even host...?). North Dakota State has taken it a level up this year and are fighting with their fierce rivals SDSU for the rights to bypass the opening round of the Summit League Tournament and host the semis and finals. We've got huge players on huge teams like #2 Wake Forest, #4 UNC, #7 Notre Dame, #11 Iowa and #15 Penn State who know they're in the NCAA Tourney, and we've got players on teams that are good but likely need to win their tournament like Montana, Army, or the Summit League squads. With conference tournaments kicking off next week, including the Big Ten Tournament in Saint Paul, check out some sources postseason predictions and catch up on our 124 (and counting) public player tracker for 2024.
Who's in the NCAA Tournament already?
I listed Chris Hendersons most recent bracket prediction from this week below. In the ACC, UNC (Clare Gagne, Maddie Dahlien), Wake Forest (Payton Cahill), and Notre Dame (Izzy Engle) look safe. In the BI 12, TCU (former Gopher Megan Plaschko) are in. The Big Ten added some successful programs from the Pac 12 (USC and UCLA are in 1st and 2nd as of now) and the boost in strength of schedule league wide looks to have paid off, with a projected 10 bids coming from the new super league to top the nation. Minnesota is predicted to be making a return after a half decade, with a chance to improve their standing with a regular season closer versus Iowa. Wisconsin is looking to be in with their squad of MNs (Ishaug, Andringa, Poor, Jacobson, Gilliand), along with Iowa (Berit Parten, Maya Hansen) and Penn State (Kaitlyn MacBean).
Other squads with a MN presence but likely in need of a conference tournament win include Montana (Bayliss Flynn), the entire Summit League race, Milwaukee (Ashlyn Derosier), and handful of others with an outside shot. Partial credit to FGCU (Gopher alum Alli Kempainen on staff), Utah State (MN Aurora FC legend Addy Symmonds), FIU (Cat and Eli Rapp), and a super deep cut for Utah Valley and a former Gopher from waaaaay back in 2019 Manthy Brady. Army (the Pohlidal sisters, Hecht, and Wamre) still with a real conference tournament path as well -- even if they're no longer favored on paper.
Gophers Clinch Big Ten Conference Spot, look to NCAA's
Big Ten Tournament in Saint Paul Oct 31st - Nov 2nd
The Big Ten holding the conference tournament in Minnesota has been known internally well before the Gophers themselves qualified, but their qualification is certainly a nice benefit to the expected fan attendance for next weekend at Elizabeth Lyle Robbie Stadium. The bottom four seeds contest the opening "play in" round on Thursday evening, with the Quarterfinals taking place Saturday and Sunday. If you haven't attended a game at ELR, this is a wonderful chance for you! We are sure to see plenty of Gopher fans, along with families and friends of all the Minnesotans who play in the Big Ten. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn State (and their Minnesotan players) will certainly have large cheering sections.
|
Player Tracker
Catch up on our nationwide tracking of Minnesotans playing D1 soccer. This week highlighted by the best assisters from the Gopher state, lead by Paige Kalal with 9, her teammate Khyah Harrper and Katharine Jones of SDSU. Check out our player tracker here, and let us know if you have any feedback!
Catch up on our weekly Equal Time episodes!
This week we had Kaitlyn MacBean of Penn State
We talk about her lights out form in the NCAA's last year, working through injuries, her playing style, impressive academics and more!
Appreciate our coverage? You can support our work for as little as $2/month! Or, just subscribe to us on YouTube, follow us on Instagram, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify and share our work with your friends on social media! We really appreciate it!
We are past the halfway point of NSIC play, and some familiar patterns are emerging. Minnesota State Mankato is the only team left undefeated and looks near impossible to score on with only 4 goals given up in 12 games. St Cloud is on a run of draws through tough NSIC territory but now ends with almost all non-playoff-positioned opponents, and some potential for their second straight at large NCAA birth. Bemidji State has been stingy with just a goal against them in the last five, besting Sioux Falls, Winona, SW MN State, Northern State and MSU Moorhead. We'll dive into the NSIC and NCAA playoff chances of the Northern Sun squads, games to watch in the coming weeks, and a shoutout to Ink Blot Sports for some insight into postseason calculations.
MN State Mankato and St Cloud State safest for NCAA spots
The mysteries of postseason birth selection are becoming less mysterious at Equal Time as we discovered a source called Inkblot Sports, run by Phillip Myers, who models exactly that. Inkblot covers all D2 sports and has been insightful in providing a model similar to the one used by the NCAA to select at large postseason births. As of now, only the undefeated MN State Mankato and the St Cloud State are predicted be in from the NSIC from an at large selection standpoint. Mankato faces a 6 game end stretch where only half are NSIC playoff prospects, so we wouldn't expect any change to their status. St Cloud State's record (6-2-4 overall, 3-1-4 in NSIC) isn't as impressive as the Mavericks, but because they've played virtually all of their toughest NSIC games, their "Performance Index" is still strong enough (6th in the Central Region -- 8 teams make the NCAAs from the Central) AND they face an easier back stretch of almost no NSIC playoff hopefuls.
U Mary, Augie, BSU, CSP, Minot State, Northern State all in play for NCAA
Using the Inkblot sourced postseason projector and the basic eyeball scan of the standings, a slate of Northern Sun teams still have the potential to be an at large squad. In basically a statistical tie, Mary, Augie, BSU, CSP, Minot State and Northern State are all just out of the 8th position based on Performance Index and RPI. Bemidji has some momentum with their win streak, but still has to face MN State Mankato, Augustana, Wayne, and CSP to close out. They'll need to pick up some big wins and maybe make a deep NSIC Tournament run to feel more confident (something they've done before). Mary has already faced a heavy list of opponents, losing only to MN State Mankato, beating Augie and drawing St Cloud to show their resilience this year. Many of these squads still face each other, and will have another chance in the NSIC Playoffs. But with so many NSIC teams so close, all of these bubble teams will likely need wins in the Conference tournament (or to literally win the conference tournament and its automatic bid) to feel confident about NCAA chances -- which could mean we only see 2 make it. We'll see! Lots of great soccer to go!
Race for NSIC Playoffs wide open
Yes we are only halfway through the regular season of Northern Sun play, but certain teams' fates are essentially going to be decided in the next few weeks. Let's dig into the teams that are on the edge of NSIC playoff contention. For the teams mentioned in the section above, nothing is guaranteed but they've got some cushion. For the squads sitting outside the top 8, there is a clear challenge to overcome and just 7-8 games to do it. Wayne State sits in 8th, with previously mentioned Minot State in 9th but reaping the reward of a tougher schedule when it comes to their outside NCAA at large hopes. Winona sits tied with Minot in a cluster of 8 schools separated by just 5 points. If you think you could pick how the standings will end of with that group of 8, buy a lotto ticket today. Sioux Falls has picked up a few wins to make a theoretical playoff run possible, but more likely for them, Crookston, SW MN State, Moorhead and UMD will be a focus on developing and seeing what type of run you can make to prepare for the next season.
Games to Watch
Friday, Oct 18 Augustana vs Wayne State, 4pm Bemidji State vs Minot State, 5pm Sunday, Oct 20 Bemidji State vs U Mary, 1pm St Cloud State vs Northern State, 2pm | Friday, Oct 25 Wayne State vs Bemidji State, 3pm Concordia St Paul vs Minot State, 7pm Sunday, Oct 27 MN State Mankato vs Northern State, 1pm Concordia St Paul vs U Mary, 1pm |
Appreciate our coverage? You can support our work for as little as $2/month! Or, just subscribe to us on YouTube, follow us on Instagram, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify and share our work with your friends on social media! We really appreciate it!
Supporters giving $10/month and up
Jean Privratsky
Samantha Privratsky
Jeremy Olson
Scott Privratsky
David Olson
Jim & Kristen Gray
Bernhard Kuehn
Michelle Chmielewski
Heather Buisman
Nate Pentz
Brett Harper
Josh Forsythe
Elisa Vicuna
Travis Gallipo
Beth Dahlman
John Wegner
Richard Heichert
John Wegner
Brian Decker
Jay Jansen
David Martin
Tanner Curl
Bryn Shank
Brynn Kirsling
Marc Abboud
Josh Velasquez
Ryan Kennedy
William Bunnell
Andrea Privratsky
Joey Nguyen
Andréa Carroll-Franck
Dan Wade
Eric Christensen
Adam Paulson
Katie Brink
Neville Eclov
Lizzie Breyer Boman
Join them in supporting our work!
Full Archive
January 2025
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
March 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
October 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018