Author: Mark Privratsky

There are just a few games left for the Northern Sun soccer squads, and we are seeing their playoff futures  defined quickly. As the postseason draws near, we are here to breakdown where teams stand in terms of both making the NSIC playoffs, as well as NCAA chances. For MN State Mankato and St Cloud State, it's about maintaining their position and holding onto at large hopes. For Augustana, Concordia St Paul, Minot State, Bemidji State, and U Mary, they can still envision NCAA chances through a run for at large position if things go their way. Another rung of squads (Northern State, Wayne State & spoiler Winona State) is fighting to simply ensure an NSIC Tournament seed (top 8) so they can keep their dreams alive. Dig into the playoff possibilities for Northern Sun teams, find the games to watch in the last few rounds, and check out the most recent NCAA projections from Inkblot Sports in this edition of the NSIC on Equal Time!

You wouldn't expect a team who wins 9-0 (MSU Moorhead) and 4-0 (Sioux Falls) over two weekends to feel vulnerable, but MN State Mankato showed again that any game in the NSIC can be a tough one. Two days after putting up 9 on the dragons, Mankato had to settle for a 0-0 draw to Northern State at home to theoretically keep the regular season NSIC race in the air. Regardless, MN State Mankato is still undefeated in conference play, and holds a 5 point lead over St Cloud State. Consider the Mavericks a lock for the NCAAs even if they still want to win some NSIC silverware along the way. They'll play at Bemidji State this Friday at 5pm before playing in Crookston on Sunday at 1pm. St Cloud State meanwhile has taken advantage of their softer schedule in the 2nd half. After drawing Mary and Minot, they've beaten Moorhead, Northern, SW MN State, and Sioux Falls to also sit in at at large position for the NCAAs. In order to stay there they'll need to win the games you'd predict them to, versus Winona and Crookston the next two weeks, but obviously the Huskies want the playoff NSIC hardware to match last year's regular season trophy as well. 

As one of the best D2 conferences in the country, we've become accustomed to seeing 2 or 3 NSIC teams in the tourney the last few years. While MN State Mankato and St Cloud can feel a bit more safe in their at large chances (though they may not admit it), we've got a big cluster of teams who could play their way to the big dance even without winning the Northern Sun. According to our friends at Inkblot Sports, who we sourced the predicted D2 bracket from, the next 3 in the Tourney from the Central Region would be Augustana, CSP and Minot State. If they win the last few regular season games and take a couple in the NSIC tourney, they can hold real hope for an at large bid. If Bemidji State and U Mary go on their own similar runs, you could see them in the conversation for an at large bid as well. In other words, the race for the big postseason is still wide open for a ton of NSIC squads, but they need to find their rhythm fast. 

As it stands, the top 6 seeds are looking safe in their NSIC playoff chances (although Bemidji State almost drew their way into danger), but then it gets dicey. Even though Minot State is projected as an almost NCAA tourney team, they still aren't guaranteed a Northern Sun bid yet. With Minot State (7th, 18pts) and Northern State (8th, 18pts) holding the last spots with just a 2 point lead over Wayne State, your bet is as good as ours as to who will make the final 8. Wayne will have to get out of a Dakota twofer of Mary and Minot with some points, and hope Winona doesn't spoil their hopes on the last day (Nov 7). Minot faces Sioux Falls, Wayne and Moorhead, while Northern faces Auggie, SW MN State, and U Mary. 

Authors: Mark Privratsky & Matt Privratsky

Fall is officially here! We can wear layers, gorgeous leaves are changing color and most importantly, college soccer playoffs are upon us. For D1 Minnesotans, we have a year with a lot of postseason potential -- with multiple teams still in the chase for postseason opportunities. The Gophers are back in the Big Ten Tournament after missing out last year, with a real chance to be in the NCAAs (maybe even host...?). North Dakota State has taken it a level up this year and are fighting with their fierce rivals SDSU for the rights to bypass the opening round of the Summit League Tournament and host the semis and finals. We've got huge players on huge teams like #2 Wake Forest, #4 UNC, #7 Notre Dame, #11 Iowa and #15 Penn State who know they're in the NCAA Tourney, and we've got players on teams that are good but likely need to win their tournament like Montana, Army, or the Summit League squads. With conference tournaments kicking off next week, including the Big Ten Tournament in Saint Paul, check out some sources postseason predictions and catch up on our 124 (and counting) public player tracker for 2024. 

While most teams needs to rely on winning their conference tournament to get to the NCAA's, a good number get picked based on an "at large" status, which can be a bit mysterious sometimes. This year, as always, we are relying on some other independent soccer journalists, along with the traditional RPI from the NCAA, to predict a National Tournament field that is becoming clearer and clearer. Specifically, I'm trusting Chris Henderson, who you should be following on Twitter already (@chris_awk), who is constantly updating his modeled predictions for the Tourney. He's one of the few people who do data work in womens soccer that we are aware of! We've also utilized the work of Christopher Thomas (@CPThomas2611 on Twitter) who similarly models postseason at large predictions, something that has been helpful for us in having real conversations about postseason potential. Check them out for a steady stream of data work in the game!

I listed Chris Hendersons most recent bracket prediction from this week below. In the ACC, UNC (Clare Gagne, Maddie Dahlien), Wake Forest (Payton Cahill), and Notre Dame (Izzy Engle) look safe. In the BI 12, TCU (former Gopher Megan Plaschko) are in. The Big Ten added some successful programs from the Pac 12 (USC and UCLA are in 1st and 2nd as of now) and the boost in strength of schedule league wide looks to have paid off, with a projected 10 bids coming from the new super league to top the nation. Minnesota is predicted to be making a return after a half decade, with a chance to improve their standing with a regular season closer versus Iowa. Wisconsin is looking to be in with their squad of MNs (Ishaug, Andringa, Poor, Jacobson, Gilliand), along with Iowa (Berit Parten, Maya Hansen) and Penn State (Kaitlyn MacBean).

Other squads with a MN presence but likely in need of a conference tournament win include Montana (Bayliss Flynn), the entire Summit League race, Milwaukee (Ashlyn Derosier),  and handful of others with an outside shot. Partial credit to FGCU (Gopher alum Alli Kempainen on staff), Utah State (MN Aurora FC legend Addy Symmonds), FIU (Cat and Eli Rapp), and a super deep cut for Utah Valley and a former Gopher from waaaaay back in 2019 Manthy Brady. Army (the Pohlidal sisters, Hecht, and Wamre) still with a real conference tournament path as well -- even if they're no longer favored on paper.  

It's been a few years but the Golden Gophers of MN are locked in the Big Ten Tournament with a game against Iowa still to come this Sunday prior to the Big Ten Tournament at ELR next week. The expansion of the BIG to 18, including newcomers USC (1st), UCLA (2nd), Washington (6th) and Oregon, the competition level ratcheted up, but with it came a new 10 team (used to be 8) conference tournament. Minnesota has seized on that opportunity and now play a very good Iowa squad this Sunday (1pm, BTN+) with a fighting chance at a top 6 seed and first round bye (Oregon has to upset Washington, MN has to win, and Ohio State and Penn State need to tie...). Iowa has been having a very strong year and will be a big test ahead of postseason play. While the Gophers are in a good place when it comes to at large selection, you can bet they want to both build momentum and potentially earn themselves an easier postseason road ahead (maybe even a first round seeded home matchup in the NCAAs...). Of note for the Gophers is the amount of players who play 90 minutes a game, including locals Sophia Boman, Sarah Martin, Jelena Zbilic, Ashley Thurk and Khyah Harper, all pretty much going to the distance as part of the depended-upon core for Coach Erin Chastain. 

​Catch up on our nationwide tracking of Minnesotans playing D1 soccer. This week highlighted by the best assisters from the Gopher state, lead by Paige Kalal with 9, her teammate Khyah Harrper and Katharine Jones of SDSU. Check out our player tracker here, and let us know if you have any feedback!

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Author: Mark Privratsky

We are past the halfway point of NSIC play, and some familiar patterns are emerging. Minnesota State Mankato is the only team left undefeated and looks near impossible to score on with only 4 goals given up in 12 games. St Cloud is on a run of draws through tough NSIC territory but now ends with almost all non-playoff-positioned opponents, and some potential for their second straight at large NCAA birth. Bemidji State has been stingy with just a goal against them in the last five, besting Sioux Falls, Winona, SW MN State, Northern State and MSU Moorhead. We'll dive into the NSIC and NCAA playoff chances of the Northern Sun squads, games to watch in the coming weeks, and a shoutout to Ink Blot Sports for some insight into postseason calculations. 

​The mysteries of postseason birth selection are becoming less mysterious at Equal Time as we discovered a source called Inkblot Sports, run by Phillip Myers, who models exactly that. Inkblot covers all D2 sports and has been insightful in providing a model similar to the one used by the NCAA to select at large postseason births. As of now, only the undefeated MN State Mankato and the St Cloud State are predicted be in from the NSIC from an at large selection standpoint. Mankato faces a 6 game end stretch where only half are NSIC playoff prospects, so we wouldn't expect any change to their status. St Cloud State's record (6-2-4 overall, 3-1-4 in NSIC) isn't as impressive as the Mavericks, but because they've played virtually all of their toughest NSIC games, their "Performance Index" is still strong enough (6th in the Central Region -- 8 teams make the NCAAs from the Central) AND they face an easier back stretch of almost no NSIC playoff hopefuls. 

Using the Inkblot sourced postseason projector and the basic eyeball scan of the standings, a slate of Northern Sun teams still have the potential to be an at large squad. In basically a statistical tie, Mary, Augie, BSU, CSP, Minot State and Northern State are all just out of the 8th position based on Performance Index and RPI. Bemidji has some momentum with their win streak, but still has to face MN State Mankato, Augustana, Wayne, and CSP to close out. They'll need to pick up some big wins and maybe make a deep NSIC Tournament run to feel more confident (something they've done before). Mary has already faced a heavy list of opponents, losing only to MN State Mankato, beating Augie and drawing St Cloud to show their resilience this year. Many of these squads still face each other, and will have another chance in the NSIC Playoffs. But with so many NSIC teams so close, all of these bubble teams will likely need wins in the Conference tournament (or to literally win the conference tournament and its automatic bid) to feel confident about NCAA chances -- which could mean we only see 2 make it. We'll see! Lots of great soccer to go!

Yes we are only halfway through the regular season of Northern Sun play, but certain teams' fates are essentially going to be decided in the next few weeks. Let's dig into the teams that are on the edge of NSIC playoff contention. For the teams mentioned in the section above, nothing is guaranteed but they've got some cushion. For the squads sitting outside the top 8, there is a clear challenge to overcome and just 7-8 games to do it. Wayne State sits in 8th, with previously mentioned Minot State in 9th but reaping the reward of a tougher schedule when it comes to their outside NCAA at large hopes. Winona sits tied with Minot in a cluster of 8 schools separated by just 5 points. If you think you could pick how the standings will end of with that group of 8, buy a lotto ticket today. Sioux Falls has picked up a few wins to make a theoretical playoff run possible, but more likely for them, Crookston, SW MN State, Moorhead and UMD will be a focus on developing and seeing what type of run you can make to prepare for the next season. 

Appreciate our coverage? You can support our work for as little as $2/month! Or, just subscribe to us on YouTube, follow us on Instagram, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify and share our work with your friends on social media! We really appreciate it!


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